Advantage Who?

Dagwood: The 2016 presidential primaries and caucuses are right around the corner, beginning with Iowa on Monday, Feb. 1. Similar to a tennis match, each state primary or caucus has the potential to swing momentum toward one candidate or another.
And the early votes are the most important, because they set the pace for the rest of the country, which will be watching the February contests closely.
That said, I'm asking unaffiliated presidential candidate Buster Bigfoot to break down the early contests and determine who will have the advantages in either party from the out-set of the race.
Let's start with Iowa, Buster.

BF: Okay. On the GOP side, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Dr. Ben Carson carry the advantage in the Midwest because of that region's traditionally more conservative base. I forecast the caucus will go (1) Ted Cruz, (2) Ben Carson, and (3) Donald Trump.
For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton has the clear advantage here. She talks tough on defense and national security issues; both big items for the more conservative base of the Midwest, even among the Democratic Party. I figure it will be advantage Hillary in Iowa, followed by Sanders.

Dagwood: How about New Hampshire? Different story?

BF: Yup. Big time. Although Hillary enjoys quite a bit of popularity in the Northeast, New Hampshire is Mayor Bernie Sanders' back yard. He is from Vermont, and the folks up in that small corner of the country tend to band together. I expect a close one for the Democrats, but Sanders should take New Hampshire over Hillary and even the odds going into the next
contest.
The GOP should see a similar turn-around, too. Donald Trump enjoys much greater notoriety in the Northeast, where he is from. He is also more centrist on social issues, and there are more republican moderates in the Northeast than there are conservatives. If Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie are going to score any significant points, it will be here. I forecast Trump will take New Hampshire handily, followed by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and probably Ted Cruz in third.

Dagwood: Then there's Nevada, known for it's libertarian ways. Anybody's game?

BF: Nevada will probably go with Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket, and Donald Trump for the GOP. Clinton has shown strong in Nevada in the past, and her notoriety were serve her well there. However, Nevada can surprise people, too. Sanders seems to be gaining momentum, especially in Las Vegas, which is big with trade unions. Nevada really could go either way, but I expect Hillary will edge out Sanders by virtue of her celebrity.
Trump has his properties in Las Vegas, which I expect will vote overwhelmingly for him. Vegas will out-vote the northern part of the state, which I figure will be more geared toward Cruz. Nevada will go Hillary then Sanders for the Dems, and Trump followed by Cruz for the GOP. Ben Carson will come in third there.

Dagwood: South Carolina?

BF: South Carolina will go with either Cruz or Carson on the republican side, and Hillary for the Democrats. Those folks down south aren't too big on folks in "Yankee" land. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are as "yankee" as one can get. Bush and Rubio could have strong showings there, too, as close as South Carolina is to their home state of Florida. But South Carolina, like Iowa, tends to vote more traditionally conservative, so I expect Cruz or Carson to take it over Trump.

Dagwood: The biggest race in March is Texas. What do you see there?

BF: That's Cruz's home state, so I forecast he'll carry it handily over Trump. Carson and Bush should also have strong showings there. Rubio perhaps a little among Hispanic voters, but the Latinos seem to like Bush a lot, too, and his family has its roots in Texas. I'm thinking Cruz will win it, followed by Trump, and Bush in third. Carson will probably come in fourth followed by Rubio.
The democrats should see another win for Hillary here. Sanders is, again, a "yankee" and Texas is not so friendly towards "yanks." Hillary's roots are in Arkansas, which borders Texas. I expect she will win Texas without a problem.

Dagwood: So, for the first month or so, it appears Hillary will likely set the pace for the Democrats, while Cruz and Trump appear to be neck and neck. Is that what you see?

BF: Yes. However, primaries in the upper Midwest, like Illinois, Michigan and Ohio--the Great Lakes states--can easily go Sanders' way. He has a better reputation with the trade unions, and those states are all about union labor. If he sticks with his campaign through Texas, in spite of fighting from behind, he can make the race much more interesting with wins in the Great Lakes. Pennsylvania and New Jersey are also solid potential victories for Sanders. New York is a toss up since Hillary was a U.S. Senator there for eight years. And Virginia will probably go with the former U.S. Secretary of State given its proximity to the Beltway.
Colorado will stand behind Hillary, I think, while Arizona may side with Sanders. California is the biggest prize of all, though. With a lot of union workers, Sanders has good potential there. But so, too, does Hillary. California is anybody's game in the Democratic Party.

Dagwood: What of the republicans after Texas?

BF: May of the candidates will have folded their campaigns after South Carolina. Some even after Iowa or New Hampshire. February will see the race thin out and the front-runner(s) clearly established. After Texas, the Great Lakes states should follow Cruz as they tend to be more  conservative than moderate. Cruz may have the advantage after those states, but Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey will even things out as they side with Trump. Maryland and Virginia likely toward Cruz; but both Rubio and Bush could pick up significant votes there assuming their campaigns haven't already folded.
The keys late in the primary season will be Colorado, Arizona, and California. I expect Cruz to take Colorado and Arizona, but by slim margins. Trump should win handily in California.

Dagwood: Predictions for the party nominations?

BF: It will be very close on the GOP side, but the race will come down to the wire against Cruz and Trump. I think Cruz will take it, though, as the GOP will eventually favor distancing itself from the much more bombastic and controversial Trump, whose mouth can get both himself and the party into deep trouble during the general election season. Cruz is more diplomatic in his approach, and will appeal more with GOP Hispanic voters; having an effect not unlike George W. Bush did in 2000 and 2004.
For the Dems, Sanders will make it a good race, and an interesting one. He may even scare Hillary, giving her reminiscences of 2008 when Obama snatched the nomination out from under her. But not this time. Sanders lacks the swagger, the stuff that Obama had. I think Hillary will get the nod in the end.